shares
Institutional investment contributes the most to our bull case.
David Puell, ARK research analyst
Bear Case
The bear case of $500,000 reflects a conservative view, emphasizing Bitcoin’s role as “digital gold” but with limited penetration (1% institutional investment, 20% digital gold contribution) and slower adoption.
Base Case
The base case of $1.2 million is more optimistic, projecting a balanced contribution from digital gold and institutional adoption (2.5% penetration rate). Also aligning with growing institutional interest (e.g., $500 million into Bitcoin ETFs in April 2025)
Bull Case
The bull case of $2.4 million is highly ambitious, relying heavily on institutional adoption (6.5% penetration, 43.4% contribution), a 60% capture of gold’s market cap. and pro-crypto policies (e.g., Strategic Bitcoin Reserve)
